Fellow Shortrunners,

     

     April 13th concluded a relatively quiet week for economic news.  Oil prices, which surged last week and sparked fears of another 1970's style crisis, subsided.  Most Americans, including myself, seem more worried about filing their taxes on time and about receiving a refund check.  It's also a time where many people examine their finances and try to asses their standard of living.  Am I better off now than I was a year ago?  Financial self-assessment certainly won't be near all time highs, despite soaring property values.  This year, many Americans will probably look back and wonder how their stock portfolio could suddenly be worth so little.

     Americans like to measure their well-being in dollars.  Not only because it is their currency, but as a society, the notion of standard of living has become synonymous with rising incomes.  For years, economists had adopted this mindset as well.  Some tried to pattern equality, inequality, and growth.  Simon Kuznets, Nobel laureate and father of national statistics and GDP accounting, was famous for his theoretical inverted-u hypothesis.  He argued (using data from just a few countries) that as income levels rose, economic inequality would rise and then fall in an upside-down u shape.  Similar analysis continues today, and countries are often ranked by their gross domestic product.

     But several clever economists have moved away from these sort of comparisons for a number of reasons.  First, currency conversion is not equivalent.  Thus an American dollar might have a varied purchasing power in different countries.  Income based measures known as PPP or purchasing-power parity measures have tried to take this into account.  But ranking by PPP income is weak as well.  Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has become famous for his diligent work on this subject.  Many of the world's poorest nations have some of the highest levels of education, safety, life expectancy and the like.  Because nations can progress in terms of human development without necessarily attaining a higher level of per capita income, Sen suggests that new forms of measurement are vital.

     Sen rejected the willingness of economists to make interpersonal comparisons of utility.  That's a mouthful, but I'll try to clarify that here.  He noticed that the relationship between say low income and low capability is not constant.  For example, we may describe someone as being capable to attend school.  But take another individual who may be handicapped or even just live further away.  In this case, it may take more resources for the second individual to achieve the same capability, that of attending school.  Instead, importance should be placed on freedoms.  He further clarifies that he is not talking about freedoms from but freedoms to.  The freedom to do something is how Sen reaches this notion of capability; the range of which a person has being his or her capability set.

     Sen's work has culminated in the creation of several United Nations indexes measuring relative inequality.  These indexes, which Sen helped to develop, carry out what he calls "distinguished capability comparison" by incorporating proxies such as life expectancy, educational attainment and in a few but not all cases, income.  Indeed, the UN's Human Development Index provides a re-ordering of nations, bearing strong changes from income based ordering.  The index ranks over 160 countries and ranges from Norway at the top (US is sixth) to Sierra Lione at the bottom (having a life expectancy on average of 38.3 years, poor educational attainment, and a PPP per capita income of $448).  Such an index can serve as a valuable progress indicator.  For example, foreign aid could be tied to human development, essentially a pressure tool forcing governments to focus on their development progress.  Aligning the priority of government and the well-being of citizens in the third world is certainly a desirable course of action, as the two unfortunately often diverge, and better assessment of the world's well-being is essential.


Sincerely,
Daniel Hicks
 


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Economic Releases

The data section provides charts and data for the most important economic indicators.

Wholesale Trade: 0.8%

  • Wholesale trade activity rose, climbing 0.8% in February.  The added sales helped to draw down excessive inventories and were consistent with the strong growth figures that we saw in last week's data.  At the same time however, the market had been anticipating the release and coming in as expected, it made little stir.

Import and Export Price Indexes: 1.1% and 0.3%

  • March's release suggested that overall US terms of trade declined as import prices rose faster than export prices.  Ignoring the impact of rising oil prices would have shown the opposite story, but large swings in petroleum product prices tend to overwhelm trade price indices.
Jobless Claims: 438,000
  • Jobless claims fell to 438,000 last week from an upwardly revised figure of 493,000.  Due to a technical issue relating to recent legislation, jobless claims figures have been and continue to be slightly distorted (most likely overstated).  Because of this, less attention is being paid to these releases until the index returns to normal.

Retail Sales: 0.2%

  • Retail sale activity in the use rose some 0.2% in March.  The increase was bolstered by rising petroleum prices and undercut by falling automobile sales, which continued to cool from its rate induced peaks. 

Producer Price Index: 1.0%

  • Again, oil prices skewed economic figures, pushing overall producer prices up 1.0% in March.  The core index, increasing gaining attention these days, rose a more moderate 0.1% for the month.  So far, there is nothing to signal significant inflationary pressure aside from the supply shocks relating to petroleum ( in addition to the mounting concern over disputes in the Middle East, both Iraq's embargo and a set of strikes in Venezuela threaten oil supply.)

ECRI Weekly Leading Index: 121.6

  • The ECRI Weekly Leading Index dipped slightly, but still appears to be trending up.  As a leading indicator it is suggesting that we can expect further recovery to take place in the states.


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Classroom

    Check out the new classroom section and watch for it to grow and change in the coming weeks as we implement drastic reconstruction to the section.  Comment and suggestions in improving the way information is conveyed would be extremely helpful.    

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Articles / Book Reviews

   Newest Articles:

The US-EU Banana Dispute
- Richard Carew

Recipe for Disaster: The Rise and Fall of Currency Boards in Argentina
- Richard Carew

 

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Site News

     Check out the new additions to the classroom section as well as updates in the interactive chartroom.

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