Fellow
Shortrunners,
The Durst Organization is famous, though few recognize the name. The New York City firm created a giant electronic clock about a block from Times Square in 1989 which showed passerby's a constantly updated reading of the national debt. Its founder, the late Seymour Durst, envisioned the billboard as a means to raise awareness of growth in the national debt. I'm not sure how much it affected the rest of the US, but I personally have memories of the clock and remember it as having inspired a feeling of uneasiness not unlike fear. Indeed, this clock was unique and set atop the Durst Organization building as a visual representation of an abstract concept.
The billboard's electronic clock was updated every second using a computer and budget figures and gave the appearance of a constantly rising debt. When the government began to run a surplus a few years ago, the clock was shut down. It simply was not conveying the message that founder Seymour Durst had intended years ago; its purpose was to raise awareness of the national debt not of budget strengthening . Times have changed. Now that the federal government has slipped back into the red, the organization says that it will restart the clock. Whether or not you agree with Durst's reasons for using the clock, it's truly a sight to see and I would encourage people to have a look once it's back up (no official restart date has been set that I'm aware of).
Sincerely,
Daniel Hicks
Economic Releases
The data section
provides charts and data for the most important economic indicators.
Import
and Export Prices: 0.0% and -0.1%
Release Date: 6/13
- The import price index remained unchanged as petroleum prices increased slightly and imports of non-petroleum goods declined slightly. Export prices fell, dragged down by falling agricultural prices. A continued current account deficit has led to a number of suggestions that the dollar will soon fall in value. Several clever economists at the Federal Reserve put out a study which studied countries running current account deficits and found that domestic currency began to fall when the deficit reached a set figure of 5% of GDP, a number the US is fast approaching. This coupled with a recent fall in the dollar has sparked worries that the dollar is overvalued. For further discussion refer to issue 105.
Retail
Sales: -0.9%
Release Date: 6/13
- Propelled by further cutbacks in automobile purchases, normally volatile retail sales fell a hefty 0.9% during May. Some have taken the cutbacks as a sign of falling consumer demand. In spite of the negative release, analysts expect consumer spending, and thus retail sales, to rebound next month.
Release Date: 6/13
- Adding fuel to my worries of deflation in the US (see Issue 106), producer prices fell for the second straight month, shrinking a hefty 0.4% in May according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A poll of economists had expected producer prices to rise 0.1%. The core producer price index, more heavily watched by policy makers, was unchanged during the same period.
Jobless
Claims: 390,000
Release Date: 6/13
- Jobless claims remained under the 400,000 figure for the second straight week but showed no serious signs of improvement. Analysts continue to watch unemployment claims in hopes that falling claims will foreshadow any serious recovery in the labor market.
Business
Inventories: -0.2%
Release Date: 6/14
- Total business inventories fell 0.2% in April, good news for the manufacturing industry which is just now beginning to breathe as the 2000's inventory accumulation far exceeded normal levels and were causing significant weakness in new orders.
Industrial
Production: 0.2%
Release Date: 6/14
- Another sign that the manufacturing sector is recovering came Thursday when the Federal Reserve released its Industrial Production figure for May, an increase of 0.2% continuing a trend of positive releases. Overall capacity utilization nudged 0.1% higher to 75.5%. Capacity utilization will have to rise much further if it is to induce firms to increase their level of capital spending. If inventories continue to fall and orders to rise, capacity utilization will indeed soon began to rise, but this is dependent on continued demand.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: 122.4
Release Date: 6/14
- The ECRI WLI fell to 122.4, a relatively large drop. In spite of this, the ECRI's growth rate, a moving average remained above 5% and still suggests future economic recovery.
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Issue #107
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